UKCP18 Climate projections and clay shrink-swell susceptibility

Shrink-swell is recognised as the most significant geohazard across Great Britain. This dataset identifies areas of shrink-swell hazard with increased potential due to changing climatic conditions based on forecasts derived from the UKCP18 climate projections. The dataset has been created at two levels of detail for RCP8.5 emissions scenario and dates up to 2070. The Basic dataset is an overview at 2Km grid resolution whilst the more detailed Premium dataset is generated at a 50m resolution. The Open versions are simplified versions of the premium versions and are shared via BGS GeoIndex. The premium versions are paid for products. UKCP18 - UK Climate Projections 2018 project RCP8.5 - A pathway where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unmitigated, leading to a best estimate global average temperature rise of 4.3°C by 2100. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are a method for capturing those assumptions within a set of scenarios.

Citation identifier: http://data.bgs.ac.uk/id/dataHolding/13607678

Point of contact

Organisation name	Individual name	Electronic mail address	Role
British Geological Survey	Enquiries	enquiries@bgs.ac.uk	Distributor
British Geological Survey	Enquiries	enquiries@bgs.ac.uk	Originator
British Geological Survey	Enquiries	not available	Distributor
British Geological Survey	Enquiries	not available	Point of contact

Maintenance and update frequency: As needed

GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0

Geology

BGS Thesaurus of Geosciences

Climate change
Precipitation (meteorology)
Rainfall
Geohazards
Shrink-swell clays
UK Location (INSPIRE)
Temperature
Clays
Shrinkage cracks
Natural hazards

dataCentre

UK Location (INSPIRE)

Keywords

NERC_DDC

Access constraints: Other restrictions

Other constraints: licenceOGL

Other constraints: Available under the Open Government Licence subject to the following acknowledgement accompanying the reproduced NERC materials "Contains NERC materials ©NERC [year]"

Use constraints: Other restrictions

Other constraints: The copyright of materials derived from the British Geological Survey's work is vested in the Natural Environment Research Council [NERC]. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in a retrieval system of any nature, without the prior permission of the copyright holder, via the BGS Intellectual Property Rights Manager. Use by customers of information provided by the BGS, is at the customer's own risk. In view of the disparate sources of information at BGS's disposal, including such material donated to BGS, that BGS accepts in good faith as being accurate, the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) gives no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the quality or accuracy of the information supplied, or to the information's suitability for any use. NERC/BGS accepts no liability whatever in respect of loss, damage, injury or other occurence however caused.

Other constraints: Available under the Open Government Licence subject to the following acknowledgement accompanying the reproduced NERC materials "Contains NERC materials ©NERC [year]"

Spatial representation type: Vector

Language: English

Topic category

Geoscientific information

Geographic identifier: GBN
ISO 3166_2 2009 revision

Geographic identifier: GREAT BRITAIN [id=139600]
British Geological Survey Gazetteer: Geographical hierarchy from Geosaurus 1979 creation

End date: 2019 Before

Unique resource identifier: OSGB 1936 / British National Grid (EPSG::27700)

Distribution format

Name	Version

Distributor contact

Organisation name	Individual name	Electronic mail address	Role
British Geological Survey	Enquiries	enquiries@bgs.ac.uk	Distributor

Distributor contact

Organisation name	Individual name	Electronic mail address	Role
British Geological Survey	Enquiries	not available	Distributor

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
	https://www.bgs.ac.uk/geoindex/home.html?src=topNav

Hierarchy level: Dataset

Other: dataset

Conformance result

Title: INSPIRE Implementing rules laying down technical arrangements for the interoperability and harmonisation of Geology

Date (Publication): 2011

Explanation: See the referenced specification

Pass: No

Conformance result

Title: Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services

Date (Publication): 2010-12-08

Explanation: See http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2010:323:0011:0102:EN:PDF

Pass: No

Statement: GeoClimate combines current GB subsidence hazard susceptibility, a GB groundwater model and climate change projections, to project future subsidence hazard. Expert BGS Geological Engineers, Groundwater Geologists and GIS specialists collaborated to generate a robust methodology. The datasets utilised and combined in GeoClimate are: -BGS GeoSure shrink-swell: BGS GB dataset providing geological information on potential clay shrink-swell, providing 5 classes from Hazard Rating A (pre-dominantly non-plastic ground conditions) to Hazard Rating E (predominantly very high plasticity ground conditions) -Zooming Object Oriented Distributed Recharge (ZOODRM) model: Provides gridded daily soil moisture deficit (SMD) values for UK, based on inputted rainfall and surface values. -11 RCM UKCP09 climate models: UKCP09 medium emissions scenario was used to force the 11 Regional Climate Model simulations, providing absolute values to input into GeoClimate. The values provided are continuous daily projections from 1950 to 2099. These datasets are used to produce a GeoClimate Volume Change Potential (VCP) score, which is based on the: -A Days in Drought (DiD) value, calculated from the ZOODRM groundwater model and 11RCM projections, -Modified Plasticity Index (IP') values, extracted from the BGS GeoSure Shrink-Swell layer.