Shrink-swell hazard potential for Great Britain based on CHESS-SCAPE climate projections, from 2030s to 2070s. (PREMIUM version: 50m resolution)

This dataset identifies areas of shrink-swell hazard with increased potential due to changing climatic conditions based on climate variables from 3 CHESS-SCAPE Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate projections and is named GeoClimate clay shrink-swell CHESS-SCAPE. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are a method for capturing a set of scenarios for projecting future greenhouse gas concentrations and their effects on the climate system. RCP2.6, is the pathway with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions in the coming century reaching an expected change in radiative forcing values of 2.6 W/m2, from the year 1750 by 2100. RCP8.5 is the pathway where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unmitigated, leading to an expected change in radiative forcing values of 8.5 W/m2 by 2100. CHESS-SCAPE projections were derived from the UKCP18 RCM RCP8.5 scenarios using time shifting and pattern scaling. CHESS-SCAPE consists of projections for four emissions scenarios, RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. This clay shrink-swell hazard projection dataset provides projections for 3 of these (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). These correspond to UK annual warming projections of between 0.9–1.9K for RCP2.6 up to 2.8–4.3K for RCP8.5 between 1980–2000 and 2060–2080. The clay shrink-swell projection dataset provides projections up to 2070s and is generated at a 50m resolution. It provides projections for all 3 RCPs for the 3 time periods 2025-2035, 2045-2055 and 2065-2075, and there are 5 GeoClimate classifications (highly unlikely to highly likely). In addition, we provide a modelled baseline dataset, centred on 1996 (11-year window 1991 to 2001, referred to as the 1990s). This allows provision of a difference map to show the differences between a modelled baseline and the modelled forecasts. Differences in classification from the baseline are calculated for each time period to provide a value for a difference-in-classification map. Clay shrink-swell susceptible soils present significant geotechnical and structural challenges to anyone wishing to build on or in them. It is one of the costliest GB geological hazards, costing the economy over £400 million a year. Hot summers can lead to a surge in subsidence insurance claims; therefore, costs are predicted to rise to over £600 million by 2050, due to climate change-driven weather extremes. Therefore, this dataset is of interest to insurers, mortgage lenders, property owners and managers, and anyone involved in property maintenance. Armed with knowledge about potential hazards, preventative or mitigative steps can be put in place to alleviate the effects of the hazard on property and infrastructure, or loss of investment.

Date (Publication): 2026-06-01

Date (Creation): 2026-06-01

Citation identifier: http://data.bgs.ac.uk/id/dataHolding/13608539

Point of contact

Organisation name	Individual name	Electronic mail address	Role
British Geological Survey	Enquiries	enquiries@bgs.ac.uk	Distributor
British Geological Survey	Enquiries	enquiries@bgs.ac.uk	Point of contact
British Geological Survey	Enquiries	not available	Distributor
British Geological Survey	Enquiries	not available	Point of contact

Maintenance and update frequency: As needed

GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0

Geology

BGS Thesaurus of Geosciences

Climate change
Temperature
Precipitation (meteorology)
Rainfall
Shrinkage cracks
Geohazards
Shrink-swell clays
Clays
Natural hazards

dataCentre

Keywords

NERC_DDC

Access constraints: Other restrictions

Other constraints: license

Other constraints: Either : (i) the dataset has not been formally approved by BGS for access and use by external clients under license; and / or (ii) the dataset contains 3rd party data or information obtained by BGS under terms and conditions that must be consulted before the dataset can be provided to, or accessed by, BGS staff or external clients. Refer to the BGS staff member responsible for the creation of the dataset if further advice is required. He / she should be familiar with the composition of the dataset, particularly with regard to 3rd party IPR contained in it, and any resultant access restrictions. This staff member should revert to the IPR Section (IPR@bgs.ac.uk) for advice, should the position not be clear.

Use constraints: Other restrictions

Other constraints: The copyright of materials derived from the British Geological Survey's work is vested in the Natural Environment Research Council [NERC]. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in a retrieval system of any nature, without the prior permission of the copyright holder, via the BGS Intellectual Property Rights Manager. Use by customers of information provided by the BGS, is at the customer's own risk. In view of the disparate sources of information at BGS's disposal, including such material donated to BGS, that BGS accepts in good faith as being accurate, the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) gives no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the quality or accuracy of the information supplied, or to the information's suitability for any use. NERC/BGS accepts no liability whatever in respect of loss, damage, injury or other occurence however caused.

Other constraints: The dataset is made available to external clients under BGS Digital Data Licence terms and conditions. Revert to the IPR Section ( iprdigital@bgs.ac.uk) if further advice is required with regard to permitted usage.

Language: English

Topic category

Geoscientific information

Geographic identifier: GBN
ISO 3166_2 2009 revision

Geographic identifier: GREAT BRITAIN [id=139600]
British Geological Survey Gazetteer: Geographical hierarchy from Geosaurus 1979 creation

Begin date: 2020

End date: 2070

Unique resource identifier: OSGB 1936 / British National Grid (EPSG::27700)

Distribution format

Name	Version
ESRI Shapefile	1994

Distributor contact

Organisation name	Individual name	Electronic mail address	Role
British Geological Survey	Enquiries	enquiries@bgs.ac.uk	Distributor

Distributor contact

Organisation name	Individual name	Electronic mail address	Role
British Geological Survey	Enquiries	not available	Distributor

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link	https://www.bgs.ac.uk/datasets/geoclimate-shrink-swell/	BGS Datasets - GeoClimate Shrink–Swell homepage

OnLine resource

Protocol	Linkage	Name
WWW:LINK-1.0-http--related	https://doi.org/10.5285/13142a27-f2b1-44e5-8ea4-252850d96b65	Citation Information - Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

Hierarchy level: Dataset

Other: dataset

Conformance result

Title: INSPIRE Implementing rules laying down technical arrangements for the interoperability and harmonisation of Geology

Date (Publication): 2011

Explanation: See the referenced specification

Pass: No

Conformance result

Title: Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services

Date (Publication): 2010-12-08

Explanation: See http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2010:323:0011:0102:EN:PDF

Pass: No

Statement: GeoClimate combines current GB subsidence hazard susceptibility, a GB groundwater model and climate change projections, to project future subsidence hazard. Expert BGS Geological Engineers, Groundwater Geologists and GIS specialists collaborated to generate a robust methodology. The datasets utilised and combined in GeoClimate are: -BGS GeoSure shrink-swell: BGS GB dataset providing geological information on potential clay shrink-swell, providing 5 classes from Hazard Rating A (pre-dominantly non-plastic ground conditions) to Hazard Rating E (predominantly very high plasticity ground conditions) -Zooming Object Oriented Distributed Recharge (ZOODRM) model: Provides gridded daily soil moisture deficit (SMD) values for UK, based on inputted rainfall and surface values. – CHESS-SCAPE RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. These are based on 4 original members of the UKCP18 12 km Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble: The values provided are continuous daily projections from 1980 to 2080. These datasets are used to produce a GeoClimate Volume Change Potential (VCP) score, which is based on: - Days in Drought (DiD) value, calculated from the ZOODRM groundwater model and 4RCM projections -Modified Plasticity Index (IP') values, extracted from the BGS GeoSure Shrink-Swell layer.