3b12a01a-c6ac-cc7e-e063-3050940ac0d8 English dataset British Geological Survey +44 115 936 3100 Environmental Science Centre,Keyworth NOTTINGHAM NOTTINGHAMSHIRE NG12 5GG United Kingdom enquiries@bgs.ac.uk pointOfContact 2026-04-15 UK GEMINI 2.3 http://data.bgs.ac.uk/id/dataHolding/13608476 OSGB 1936 / British National Grid (EPSG::27700) UKCP09 Climate projections and clay shrink-swell suceptibility Premium 2017-02 creation http://data.bgs.ac.uk/id/dataHolding/13608476 Shrink-swell is recognised as the most significant geohazard across Great Britain. This dataset identifies areas of shrink-swell hazard with increased potential due to changing climatic conditions based on forecasts derived from the UKCP09 research project. The dataset has been created at two levels of detail for different climatic scenarios and dates up to 2080. The Basic dataset is an overview at 2Km grid resolution whilst the more detailed Premium dataset is generated at a 50m resolution. The Open versions are simplified versions of the premium versions and are shared via GeoIndex. The premium versions are paid for products. UKCP09 - UK Climate Projections 2009 project Enquiries British Geological Survey 0115 936 3143 0115 936 3276 Environmental Science Centre, Nicker Hill, Keyworth NOTTINGHAM NOTTINGHAMSHIRE NG12 5GG United Kingdom enquiries@bgs.ac.uk distributor Enquiries British Geological Survey 0115 936 3143 0115 936 3276 Environmental Science Centre, Nicker Hill, Keyworth NOTTINGHAM NOTTINGHAMSHIRE NG12 5GG United Kingdom enquiries@bgs.ac.uk originator Enquiries British Geological Survey 0115 936 3143 0115 936 3276 Environmental Science Centre, Nicker Hill, Keyworth NOTTINGHAM NOTTINGHAMSHIRE NG12 5GG United Kingdom enquiries@bgs.ac.uk publisher Enquiries British Geological Survey United Kingdom not available distributor Enquiries British Geological Survey United Kingdom not available pointOfContact asNeeded https://resources.bgs.ac.uk/images/geonetworkThumbs/3b12a01a-c6ac-cc7e-e063-3050940ac0d8.png Geology GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0 2008-06-01 publication Shrinkage cracks Temperature Geohazards Natural hazards Rainfall Subsidence Precipitation (meteorology) Shrink-swell clays Climate change BGS Thesaurus of Geosciences 2022 revision UK Location (INSPIRE) dataCentre NERC_DDC otherRestrictions licenceOGL Available under the Open Government Licence subject to the following acknowledgement accompanying the reproduced NERC materials "Contains NERC materials ©NERC [year]" otherRestrictions The copyright of materials derived from the British Geological Survey's work is vested in the Natural Environment Research Council [NERC]. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in a retrieval system of any nature, without the prior permission of the copyright holder, via the BGS Intellectual Property Rights Manager. Use by customers of information provided by the BGS, is at the customer's own risk. In view of the disparate sources of information at BGS's disposal, including such material donated to BGS, that BGS accepts in good faith as being accurate, the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) gives no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the quality or accuracy of the information supplied, or to the information's suitability for any use. NERC/BGS accepts no liability whatever in respect of loss, damage, injury or other occurence however caused. Available under the Open Government Licence subject to the following acknowledgement accompanying the reproduced NERC materials "Contains NERC materials ©NERC [year]" vector 50000 English geoscientificInformation ISO 3166_2 2009 revision GBN British Geological Survey Gazetteer: Geographical hierarchy from Geosaurus 1979 creation GREAT BRITAIN [id=139600] -6.9400 2.4200 49.9300 58.6600 2020 Enquiries British Geological Survey 0115 936 3143 0115 936 3276 Environmental Science Centre, Nicker Hill, Keyworth NOTTINGHAM NOTTINGHAMSHIRE NG12 5GG United Kingdom enquiries@bgs.ac.uk distributor Enquiries British Geological Survey United Kingdom not available distributor https://www.bgs.ac.uk/datasets/geoclimate-ukcp09-and-ukcp18/ WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link GeoClimate UKCP09 and UKCP18 The BGS GeoClimate shrink–swell national datasets show potential change in subsidence due to changes in climate. They have been developed by combining long term UK Climate Projection (UKCP) scenarios for rainfall and temperature changes with the geotechnical properties of the ground, to identify areas projected to experience the largest increases in susceptibility to subsidence over the next century. information https://mapapps2.bgs.ac.uk/geoindex/home.html WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link GeoIndex Onshore BGS GeoIndex is a web tool for professional users who need to access BGS data as part of their business requirements. The map viewer is free to use and is designed to work on desktop and mobile devices. search dataset dataset INSPIRE Implementing rules laying down technical arrangements for the interoperability and harmonisation of Geology 2011 publication See the referenced specification false Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services 2010-12-08 publication See http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2010:323:0011:0102:EN:PDF false Following the initial determinations of the CHANGE model, based on the ZOODRM (zoom object-oriented distributed recharge model) and Future Flows 11RCM (Regional Climate Models) data, and the initial assessment of the shrink-swell susceptible areas, based on the GeoSure Shrink-Swell layer, a new GeoClimate rating for shrink-swell susceptibility was devised. This new rating was based on the Modified Plasticity Index (IP') values, from the BGS GeoSure Shrink-Swell layer, combined with the Days in Drought (DiD) values, from the ZOODRM and Future Flows 11RCM data. DiD grids were calculated for three different climatic scenarios for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2080. Each of these grids was combined with the Shrink-Swell layer to produce a revised Volume Change Potential (VCP) score for the UK. All processing was done within ArcGIS.